Coronavirus crystal ball is not about modelling the progression of the disease, there are many models already out there, but rather guesstimating what social and economic changes we will experience a year from now as a consequence of the pandemic. And it’s not really based on data (gasp), ok maybe some data, but mostly rooted in imagination fuelled by history. Many of these were contributed by friends.
Let’s start with the good:
- Being cooped up at home and having nothing to do in the evenings might result in an increased birth rate in the beginning of 2021, but most likely only of first borns. Because being cooped up with children is a whole different ballgame.
- Academic research in life sciences will see increase in federal funding (amen)
- Colleges will offer more online courses and in general the online courseverse (can you repeat this really fast 10 times?) will expand
- There will be a wave of weddings and increase in travel
- More people will have remote jobs
- More people will cook at home and will learn how to cook
- Healthcare and software companies will see revenue gains in the long run
Now to the bad and the ugly:
- The big one is a global recession
- Unemployment during the pandemic will be high and might not recover a year from now because many businesses will close down
- Entertainment, hospitality, beauty and travel industries will take the biggest hits
- Crime rates will go up
- The less wealthy part of the population will be affected more because of lack of insurance and remote work options which will increase the wealth gap even more
- Pretend democracies, like Russia, and non-democracies will see a tightening of the ruling party’s grip
- Rate of divorces will increase
What do you predict? Add your thoughts in the comments down there.